Water in Africa: Climate Change vs Demographic Change

In this blog post, I will be looking two articles—one by Carter and Parker (2009) and the other by de Wit and Stankiewicz (2006)—on the effects of climate change on groundwater and surface water in Africa respectively. Carter and Parker (2009) describes the estimated population growth in Africa, along with increased urbanisation and growing per capita consumption. By 2050, urban water demands are projected to increase by a factor of four, which Carter and Parker (2009) argue is likely to outstrip any problems caused by climate change. Population growth also puts pressure on rural land, and forces the acceleration of the development of irrigated production, further placing stress on the available water resources. On the other hand, de Wit and Stankieicz (2006) warn against the highly detrimental effects of a possible drop in rainfall caused by climate change—in regions receiving 500-600mm/year of rainfall, a 10% drop in precipitation could reduce surface drainage by 30-50%. 

Some thoughts that I had after reading the articles: 

The rather divergent views of the two studies are reflective of the high levels of variation and uncertainty involved in the climate change predictions and the estimations of its effects. Depending on which of the multitude of factors are taken into consideration, climate change predictions can vary drastically.

Moreover, both studies focus on the effects of climate change on the amounts and availability of ground and surface water, when in many circumstances, the key determinant of per capita water use is the ability of individuals and households to access safe water easily.

Questions that I hope to explore through further reading: 

Aside from the volume of water, how might climate change influence these socio-economic and socio-cultural factors that shape access to sufficient quantities of safe water? 

How might climate change affect the quality of water and possible the provision of sanitation in Africa?

Which parts of Africa might be most affected by climate change and how?

The effects of land-use change, and their drivers, on water in Africa...

References: 

Carter, R.C. and A. Parker (2009) 'Climate change, population trends and groundwater in Africa', Hydrological Sciences, 54, 4, 676-689. 

de Wit, M. and J. Stankiewicz (2006) 'Changes in Surface Water Supply Across Africa with Predicted Climate Change', Science, 311, 1917-1921.